Once again, Xavier has risen to the top of the Atlantic-10. Despite this being a 'down year' for the Musketeers, they are headed towards making an NCAA appearance for the 5th year in a row. Xavier's only loss in conference games is a 5-point loss to Temple in Philadelphia. For a 'down year', the Musketeers' losses are all respectable: at Temple, at Kansas State, vs. Baylor (neutral court), at Butler ('the clock game') vs. Marquette (neutral court), at Wake Forest. No home losses, mostly losses to teams headed for the NCAA tournament, and one game with a controversial outcome.
Needless to say, it's disappointing to watch the Flyers stutter while Xavier rises to the top. But this is a prime opportunity to reclaim our identity. This is a must-win game for UD, for a few reasons:
1. UD needs wins. With a 4-3 record in conference play, they can't give more than 1-2 losses moving forward.
2. UD needs Top 50 RPI wins. Xavier is #20 RPI. Right now, UD is 2-5 against Top 50, 0-5 versus Top 25. This game is an NCAA resume builder.
3. UD needs momentum. If UD drops to Xavier, then it's probably win the A-10 tournament or head to the NIT. The St. Bonaventure's win was nice, but this team needs to prove that it can beat good teams.
UD needs solid contributions from the players on Saturday, and in the coming games. This is how I break down our team:
Chris Wright, Chris Johnson: Our two top players. If these two guys don't show up down the stretch, we're in trouble. For Chris Johnson, we need him to knock down his shots and find ways to score. Chris Wright is capable of putting up 15 points on any given night, but I would like to see better contributions from him in the half-court offense. And both these players need to get to the foul line often.
London Warren, Kurt Huelsman: The two senior leaders. Their contributions are best found on the defensive end, but it's nice to see them showing up on the offensive end. London has been in beast mode recently, including double-digit points performances in the last two games. His points aren't the whole story - he's shooting 78% on field goals in the last two games, getting to the free throw line, and hitting his free throws (75% in last two games). I have always been tough on Kurt, but I acknowledge that he's played well in the last two games. It concerns me when our offense is running through these two players, but this is the type of effort we expect from our seniors.
Marcus Johnson: Marcus... we love you, we need you. Marcus gets his own category, as he should be in the first category but doesn't belong in the 'steady senior' category. UD needs Marcus Johnson to show up. He had a good game against Saint Bonaventure, but didn't play so well against St. Joseph's and Rhode Island. I'd like to see Marcus take the ball to the hoop more and not settle for jumpshots as much. Marcus is a key to UD making moves in the A-10.
Rob Lowery, Mickey Perry, Paul Williams, Luke Fabrizius: Shot selection and decisionmaking. These players need to focus on both. Luke gets a partial exemption, because he's shot well, but we all remember the days of Luke chucking up shots at will. While the loss of Luke Fabrizius has hurt our shooting, I am not convinced that he's the 'magic ingredient' that others talk about. He's had a good shooting year with limited opportunity and with a small sample size. That being said, Luke is definitely a shooting upgrade over Mickey Perry, Rob Lowery, and Paul Williams. Paul is shooting 29%, Rob is shooting 33%, and Mickey is shooting 34% on three-pointers. Rob is shooting 25% on three-pointers since his 8-10 performance against Boston University, including 0-10 against New Mexico. All four of these guys can be victims of trying to do too much. They can all make contributions, but need to play smart. The upside? 'Cool Hand' Luke returns on Saturday for Xavier.
Josh Benson and Devin Searcy: The two-big men have been just OK this year. Both players have shown great athletic ability and flashes of talent, but we don't get consistent performances from them. The inconsistency can be partially attributed to playing time (especially for Benson), but that's a chicken-and-egg question: Do they play few minutes because of their performance or is their performance to blame on playing time? No one will confuse these two players as being overpowering big men, but their athleticism makes them valuable. If UD focuses more on transition offense and driving the ball to the basket, these two players might provide more value on the offensive end with put backs and open looks.
Comments? Concerns? Voice 'em.
Let's Go Flyers. Beat XU.
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4 comments:
I feel more confident that Dayton will win this game than I do about winning road games to SLU and Duquesne. I honestly think that Dayton will go undefeated at home the rest of the way. I really think we'd be undefeated at home if not for some bad cheesesteaks.
I have serious doubts however that Dayton can go 2 for 4 on the road down the stretch which is precisely what will be necessary at minimum. I am pessimistically hopeful that we can pull out an 11-5 A10 record as it seems as though that is the minimum we will need.
You and me both.
I read a Xavier blogger talking about how BG plays too many not-so-good players. This might be the time to start looking at taking our top 7 or so and running them all 40 mins.
I would really like to see that. I really think CW and CJ should be playing over 30 minutes a game maybe 35. I would add MJ to that list but he hasn't earned it this year, unfortunately no one else has either. Last year I took pride in the fact that we had 11-12 players that could step up and contribute but this year there's something not quite right about it.
Thad Matta plays Turner, Buford, and Diebler for 35-40 minutes a game every game and they all average over 15 ppg and almost always combine for 40+ points. He also only plays about 8 players a night. Not saying we should mimic that exactly we don't have pure enough shooters for that but somewhere in between would be more appropriate than our 11 man hockey rotation. Anyone disagree?
It seems that everyone is moving in this direction now.
Mickey Perry and co. shouldn't be playing more than the minimum. Up until a game or two ago, London was logging less minutes than Paul. Paul had some good games to justify playing time, but not more than London.
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